This is the first post in a planned series on Crossrail 2. This one focuses on cost. Specifically, what might be a reasonable breakdown of the headline figures we have.
Cost breakdown
TfL have given us two estimates for the two variants of Crossrail 2 that they are putting forward.
The cheaper option is the Metro scheme, which plans 40tph (trains per hour) of 120m long trains based on DLR type technology. This is costed at £9.4bn (without optimism bias). This proposal can be thought of as a modern tube line, rather than as a Crossrail line in the style of Crossrail 1.
The more expensive option is the Regional scheme, which plans 30tph (trains per hour) of 250m long trains based on Crossrail 1 technology. This is costed at £12bn (without optimism bias)
In order to better offer my own alternatives to these schemes, I found it useful to break down these high level costs to more manageable units. The following is published to allow criticism and comment.
Metro scheme cost breakdown (estimated)
This is my estimated breakdown of the total £9.4bn cost.
| Item | Cost estimate | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Tunnelling | £2,800m | 27.9km at £100m per km |
| Stations | £4,400m | See below |
| Depot | £800m | Estimate |
| Track, Electrical, Comms | £1,000m | Extrapolation from Northern line extension |
| Fees, consultancy | £400m | Extrapolation from Northern line extension |
| TOTAL | £9.4bn |
Regional scheme cost breakdown (estimated)
This is my estimated breakdown of the total £12bn cost.
| Item | Cost estimate | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Tunnelling | £3,600m | 34.4km at £100m per km plus one junction |
| Stations | £4,400m | See below |
| Upgrade Network Rail | £1,200m | Work needed in Lea Valley and South West |
| Depot | £1,000m | Bigger trains than Metro |
| Track, Electrical, Comms | £1,300m | More complex signals than Metro |
| Fees, consultancy | £500m | Bigger project than Metro |
| TOTAL | £12.0bn |
Station cost (estimated)
I costed the stations up as follows:
| Station | Metro | Regional |
|---|---|---|
| Wimbledon | £300m | £300m | Tooting Broadway | £300m | £300m | Clapham Junction | £500m | £500m | Chelsea | £300m | £300m | Victoria | £300m | £300m | Piccadilly Circus | £400m | Tottenham Court Road | £300m | £400m | Euston/St.Pancras | £600m | £600m | Angel | £300m | £300m | Dalston | £300m | £300m | Seven Sisters | £300m | £300m | Turnpike Lane | £300m | £300m | Alexandra Palace | £200m | £200m | Hackney | £300m |
Summary
The headline figures from TfL are only of limited use, particularly if you are proposing changes. The purpose of this blog is to provide a basis for estimates in other posts.
If you are reading this and thinking that I've forgotten something, or got the cost breakdown greatly wrong, please leave a comment!
Update: Next in the series: Crossrail 2 flaws
Why are the station costs the same for Metro/Regional ?
ReplyDeleteThe regional stations will have to be much bigger for the longer trains, hence more expensive..
I would tend to agree that the station costs should be cheaper for Metro. However, this blog is reverse-engineered from the end number of £9.4bn, and the only way I can get that to work is with the same station costs. It is also possible that TfL artificially inflated the Metro costs, but I have no evidence for that. Ideally, TfL would publish the real breakdown!
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