Monday, 5 August 2013

Crossrail 2 - Cost breakdown

This is the first post in a planned series on Crossrail 2. This one focuses on cost. Specifically, what might be a reasonable breakdown of the headline figures we have.

Cost breakdown

TfL have given us two estimates for the two variants of Crossrail 2 that they are putting forward.

The cheaper option is the Metro scheme, which plans 40tph (trains per hour) of 120m long trains based on DLR type technology. This is costed at £9.4bn (without optimism bias). This proposal can be thought of as a modern tube line, rather than as a Crossrail line in the style of Crossrail 1.

The more expensive option is the Regional scheme, which plans 30tph (trains per hour) of 250m long trains based on Crossrail 1 technology. This is costed at £12bn (without optimism bias)

In order to better offer my own alternatives to these schemes, I found it useful to break down these high level costs to more manageable units. The following is published to allow criticism and comment.

Metro scheme cost breakdown (estimated)

This is my estimated breakdown of the total £9.4bn cost.

Item Cost estimate Rationale
Tunnelling £2,800m 27.9km at £100m per km
Stations £4,400m See below
Depot £800m Estimate
Track, Electrical, Comms £1,000m Extrapolation from Northern line extension
Fees, consultancy £400m Extrapolation from Northern line extension
TOTAL £9.4bn  


Regional scheme cost breakdown (estimated)

This is my estimated breakdown of the total £12bn cost.

Item Cost estimate Rationale
Tunnelling £3,600m 34.4km at £100m per km plus one junction
Stations £4,400m See below
Upgrade Network Rail £1,200m Work needed in Lea Valley and South West
Depot £1,000m Bigger trains than Metro
Track, Electrical, Comms £1,300m More complex signals than Metro
Fees, consultancy £500m Bigger project than Metro
TOTAL £12.0bn  


Station cost (estimated)

I costed the stations up as follows:

Tooting Broadway£300m£300m
Clapham Junction£500m£500m
Piccadilly Circus£400m 
Tottenham Court Road£300m£400m
Seven Sisters£300m£300m
Turnpike Lane£300m£300m
Alexandra Palace£200m£200m
Hackney £300m


The headline figures from TfL are only of limited use, particularly if you are proposing changes. The purpose of this blog is to provide a basis for estimates in other posts.

If you are reading this and thinking that I've forgotten something, or got the cost breakdown greatly wrong, please leave a comment!

Update: Next in the series: Crossrail 2 flaws


  1. Why are the station costs the same for Metro/Regional ?

    The regional stations will have to be much bigger for the longer trains, hence more expensive..

    1. I would tend to agree that the station costs should be cheaper for Metro. However, this blog is reverse-engineered from the end number of £9.4bn, and the only way I can get that to work is with the same station costs. It is also possible that TfL artificially inflated the Metro costs, but I have no evidence for that. Ideally, TfL would publish the real breakdown!